%0 Conference Proceedings
%4 cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.18.34.58
%2 cptec.inpe.br/adm_conf/2005/10.31.18.34.59
%T Mean climate and annual cycle in a regional climate change experiment over Southern South America. II: climate change scenarios (2081-2090)
%D 2006
%A Nuñez, Mario Néstor,
%A Solman, Silvina,
%A Cabré, María Fernanda,
%@affiliation CIMA (CONICET/UBA) and Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos (UBA) (Nuñez, Solman. Cabré),
%@electronicmailaddress mnunez@cima.fcen.uba.ar
%@electronicmailaddress solman@cima.fcen.uba.ar
%@electronicmailaddress cabre@cima.fcen.uba.ar
%E Vera, Carolina,
%E Nobre, Carlos,
%B International Conference on Southern Hemisphere Meteorology and Oceanography, 8 (ICSHMO).
%C Foz do Iguaçu
%8 24-28 Apr. 2006
%I American Meteorological Society (AMS)
%J 45 Beacon Hill Road, Boston, MA, USA
%P 325-331
%S Proceedings
%1 American Meteorological Society (AMS)
%K climate change scenarios, dynamical downscaling, regional climate change.
%X A basic analysis is presented for a regional climate change simulations that were conducted by the Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA) as a contribution to the Ar-gentinean 2nd National Communication of Climate Change project. For the driven global model HadAM3P, a 10-year control run and two 10-year scenario runs (based on the SRES A2 and B2 emission scenarios) were made with MM5 regional model. There are few quanti-tative differences between both emission scenarios. The simulated changes are larger for the A2 than the B2 scenario, although with few qualitative differences. In the two scenario runs, the warming in southern Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia and northeastern Argentina are larger in winter and mainly in spring. In Paraguay, southern Brazil and northern Argentina the warm-ing peaks in spring when it locally reaches 5.5 ° C in the simulation for the A2 scenario. The B2 simulation shows a general increase in precipitation in southern Brazil, Paraguay, Bolivia, Uruguay, northern Argentina and northern Chile, with some decrease patches in precipitation southern Brazil, northern Chile, southern Peru, northwestern and northeastern Argentina and in the Patagonia. The A2 simulation shows a similar geographical pattern of the changes in precipitation, but with more extended areas with decrease in precipitation mainly in Chile. Both simulations show a general increase in precipitation in northern and central Argentina especially in summer and fall and a general decrease in precipitation in winter and spring. In fall the simulations agree on a general decrease in precipitation in southern Brazil. This re-flects changes in the atmospheric circulation during winter and spring. Changes in mean sea level pressure show a cell of increasing pressure centered somewhere in the southern Atlantic Ocean and southern Pacific Ocean, mainly during summer and fall in the Atlantic and in spring in the Pacific. In relation to the pressure distribution in the control run, this indicates a southward extension of the summer mean Atlantic and Pacific subtropical highs.
%9 Climate change in the SH
%@language en
%3 325-332.pdf